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Very cool! I think Houzz would be wise to focus on their Visual Match tool – if I’m lucky enough to rent a nice apartment one day, I could definitely see myself trying it out! On the other hand, the other side of their business – serving as a broker between homeowners and home service providers – lies in a crowded ecosystem that is under a serious amount of pressure from external forces. That side is built on a dying business model; to put it into context, the Angie’s List turnaround is going terribly and I’m currently shorting the company. HomeAdvisor, which is owned by InterActive Corp., is showing signs of weakness as well. I hope to see that Houzz will continue to pursue revenue streams outside of the typical home service brokerage business.

Hate to be a cynic, but Facebook’s internet.org endeavor always struck me as nefarious. Facing the prospect of being forced out of India, the scale and aggression of the PR campaign that Facebook launched to fight the ejection had the effect of betraying the company’s true intent: to bury its tendrils into developing regions before the competition can arrive. On one hand, I admire Zuckerberg’s desire to carry out bold initiatives like this project to acquire new customers, and channel as much of the world’s internet traffic as possible through portals under his corporation’s control. He’s the CEO of Facebook, and he’s doing what he thinks is right to continue growing the company. On the other hand, the undertones of imperialism are undeniable to many people who can trace parallels between the arrival of the Internet.org drones and previous events in their national histories. Hopefully the outcome in India will serve as a lesson for FB and its partners to develop a greater awareness of historical context and strike a more thoughtful balance between growth and incursion.

Great article, Maria! I understand the impact that that digital sales and marketing trends have on luxury retailers, but this is the first time that I’ve heard of a “phygital” business strategy. I was blown away by the concept of Burberry’s digital store – it looks like something out of Blade Runner! I wonder what customers will value most, in the years ahead, when they walk into brick-and-mortar luxury retails shops: will they welcome the continuation of the same stream of digital marketing and advertising that already pervades every other screen in their lives? Or would many prefer a respite from the noise – a chance to engage with their considered purchases in peace, with a bit of personalized attention from a traditional sales attendant?

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Eric, I really enjoyed this article! Definitely agree with your main point – when people discuss the democratization of music, they frequently reify the role of new platforms of distribution while overlooking the key role of production suites. I remember reading about how Porter Robinson produced music for years – including Spitfire, his debut EP on OWSLA – using a cheap laptop and a copy of FL Studio (a.k.a. FruityLoops, a cheap DAW that’s been around for many years.) Meanwhile, you hear about other producers making critically-acclaimed records on other free or bargain-bin DAWs – Burial famously used Sony ACID and Sound Forge to make his music, lining his drums up by eye and mouse-clicking them into place. As you mentioned, at least Pro Tools enjoys the privilege of being viewed as the standard among many of the industry’s professionals. I think offering a subscription model was definitely the right move: just like Microsoft Office, the historical up-front cost of the Pro Tools was pretty high, which compelled a lot of potential customers to pirate the software or select cheaper options from the competition. I’m sure Avid is hopeful that the lower day-1 entry price offered through the SaaS model will encourage more people to start using Pro Tools and drive up network effects within the production community, and stave off competition from Ableton, FL Studio, Logic, and all the other DAWs.

Eric, I really enjoyed this article! Definitely agree with your main point – when people discuss the democratization of music, they frequently reify the role of new platforms of distribution while overlooking the key role of production suites. I remember reading about how Porter Robinson produced music for years – including Spitfire, his debut EP on OWSLA – using a cheap laptop and a copy of FL Studio (a.k.a. FruityLoops, a cheap DAW that’s been around for many years.) Meanwhile, you hear about other producers making critically-acclaimed records on other free or bargain-bin DAWs – Burial famously used Sony ACID and Sound Forge to make his music, lining his drums up by eye and mouse-clicking theEric, I really enjoyed this article! Definitely agree with your main point – when people discuss the democratization of music, they frequently reify the role of new platforms of distribution while overlooking the key role of production suites. I remember reading about how Porter Robinson produced music for years – including Spitfire, his debut EP on OWSLA – using a cheap laptop and a copy of FL Studio (a.k.a. FruityLoops, a cheap DAW that’s been around for many years.) Meanwhile, you hear about other producers making critically-acclaimed records on other free or bargain-bin DAWs – Burial famously used Sony ACID and Sound Forge to make his music, lining his drums up by eye and mouse-clicking them into place. As you mentioned, at least Pro Tools enjoys the privilege of being viewed as the standard among many of the industry’s professionals. I think offering a subscription model was definitely the right move: just like Microsoft Office, the historical up-front cost of the Pro Tools was pretty high, which compelled a lot of potential customers to pirate the software or select cheaper options from the competition. I’m sure Avid is hopeful that the lower day-1 entry price offered through the SaaS model will encourage more people to start using Pro Tools and drive up network effects within the production community, and stave off competition from Ableton, FL Studio, Logic, and all the other DAWs.

Really enjoyed this piece! Looks like new tech is creating many new opportunities in the dairy industry. I think we should also consider the scale required to reap a positive return on investment in these emerging digital products. I assume most independent dairy farmers possess a great amount of knowledge and expertise in how to best manage their farms, and the limited scale of their businesses allows them to maintain close daily contact with their herds and pastures. The animal-embedded sensors, auto-controlled irrigation systems, and digital record systems you mention in your post would serve to decrease the amount of time farmers would need to be present in the field to make informed decisions, enabling the success of larger milk farms with less human oversight. However, for the owner of a small or mid-size farm, the cost of investing in some of these technologies might be too high, especially if the tech mainly serves to replicate their own observations and judgment. Perhaps this implies that a major shift in the dairy industry’s traditional business model is now at hand – that the many independent milk farms shown at the top of Figure 1 are due for consolidation and roll-up, as investments in these new digital systems will result in higher levels of cost reduction and yield increase when conducted at scale. MOOOO!

Emma – this is wild! Very cool. I love Vincent Callebaut’s “Lilypad” concept, and I can understand how a buoyant marine concrete could play a large role in allowing the Lilypad and other similar designs become reality. Yet I suspect these floating mini-cities would most likely be financed to serve as resorts, casinos, private residential developments, or off-shore business and tax centers. Is it really feasible to believe that governments or private citizens would fund the creation of off-shore floating cities, or to somehow dig under and buoy existing highly populated areas? If rising sea levels are an inevitability, it seems that the path of least resistance, for most people, is to simply move inland.

I totally agree with you, Jordan. Hollywood and the international movie industry have the ability to lever immense power over public opinion, especially when mass-audience films carry a message packaged alongside a compelling mix of story and spectacle. I noticed that you did not directly refer to Centropolis Entertainment’s “The Day After Tomorrow” (2004) or “2012” (2009), even though both films used climate change as the centerpiece of their narratives. While they both did well in the box office, I personally felt these two movies came off a bit shrill; the outrageous portrayal of the disaster scenarios through generous use of special effects actually subtracted from the power of the underlying message, in my view. In contrast, the message in two of the films that you mentioned – Legendary’s “Interstellar” and James Cameron’s “Avatar” – actually resonated far more with me as a moviegoer. The portrayal of a barren and depleted Earth in “Interstellar,” in particular, was a haunting and believable picture of the destination at which we, all of humanity, may one day arrive if we do not change course. It struck a chord in me, and I am sure I am not the only one who was deeply affected in such a way. As long as the perilous world of tomorrow – a planet buckling under environmental change caused by man – serves as a terrific setting for drama, I believe these movies will continue to roll out, even if an increasing number of studios come under Chinese or other foreign ownership.

Dean the poster, I’ll be honest — I never considered how big of a role cow farts, burps, and poops played in global warming. So thank you for your post.

Now, I’m thinking about what else Dean the company might be able to do to encourage farmers to (1) protect their cows from heat stress to limit loss in dairy production, and (2) prevent these gentle creatures from trashing our atmosphere so much with their expelled methane. I like the idea of studying antibiotics, diet mix, and even genetic engineering to cut down on the gas, as discussed above. This might be a stretch, but I wonder if anyone has studied the idea of trapping the methane at its source (the cow) and potentially even store it to serve a better use. I don’t know how far away we are from witnessing the arrival of large-area biodomes, but it seems like such a device could – in theory – prevent livestock methane from escaping into the atmosphere, while simultaneously protecting the animals from excess heat.

I really enjoyed this article, JG – as MicMacMan (Tom) mentioned, it’s a perfect illustration of how climate change and rising sea levels are directly causing real value destruction in the present day. This isn’t just some theoretical problem. The case of the Doonberg resort is laden with irony for a couple reasons: first, “build a wall” appears to be a recurring theme in the world of Trump, and second, the Trump Organization’s application for a construction permit cited “global warming and its effects” as driving the need to build a seawall. Yet at the same time, Trump has claimed that global warming is a scheme created by the Chinese “to make U.S. manufacturing non-competitive.” If he’s elected into office, Trump could very well be expected to block the pursuit of a large-scale antidote to climate change, even as he applies a variety of “band-aids” (Alec’s term) in a pragmatic effort to protect his own business interests. Sad!

Citations:
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/05/donald-trump-climate-change-golf-course-223436
https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/265895292191248385?lang=en

Is it a bad sign that John Doerr’s TED Talk made me laugh? Watching him cry reminded me of the time that Bill Ackman opened the floodgates and practically sobbed [video link: https://youtu.be/bQc6L4ieMwo?t=7964%5D in the midst of his infamous 2014 attempt to spike the stock of Herbalife International into the ground. The market didn’t buy the act, and Ackman’s Herbalife short has remained a thorn in his side for the last couple years – a relatively low “return on invested brain damage,” as he would put it. It sounds like the ROIBD wasn’t too attractive for Doerr or the rest of the VCs at Kleiner Perkins, either. Perhaps LPs should be worried if they see one of their money managers crying on stage while trying to garner support for an investment thesis.

In all seriousness, the disappointing results at KPCB should serve to warn investors of the dangers of betting heavily on emerging themes in technology. I sincerely hope clean-tech will get its day in the sun (ha), but in this case, it seems that investor optimism got way too far ahead of market reality, and a lot of otherwise-promising companies fell into a chasm. As an outsider, what makes this sub-sector appear even more perilous to navigate is the fact that the fortunes of clean-tech companies are not only driven by innovation, but also by outside forces (as mentioned in the post – entry of Chinese companies, shale gas boom, etc.) and other macro factors.

Loved this post, Doug, thank you.