In this paper, using a novel data set of resumes from approximately 16 million individuals from the United States, we study the career implications of automation and robotization. We calculate the lifetime career value of various occupations, combining (1) the likelihood of future transitions to other occupations, and (2) earning potential of these occupations. We document a downward trend in the growth of career values in the U.S. between 2000 and 2016. We find that while wage growth is slower, the decline in the average career value growth is mainly due to reduced upward occupational mobility. Automation and robotization are factors contributing to the decline of average local labor market career values. In commuting zones that have been more exposed to automation, the average career value has declined further between 2000 and 2016.
Moreover, the decline in career values is not confined to manufacturing occupations—which are more subject to automation—but also impacts retail and service occupations. Local labor markets with greater exposure to robots show lower upward occupational mobility. Changes in career values are predictive of investment in long-term outcomes, such as investment into schooling and housing, and voting in the 2016 general elections. We find further evidence that automation affected both the demand-side and supply-side of politics.
Pinar Yildirim is Associate Professor of Marketing at the Wharton School, Associate Professor by courtesy at the Penn Department of Economics, NBER Faculty Fellow, Senior Fellow at the Center for Technology and Innovation at the University of Pennsylvania Law School, and Senior Fellow at the Leonard Davis Institute at the University of Pennsylvania. Pinar’s research areas are technology, media and information economics. She focuses on applied theory and applied economics of online platforms, advertising, networks, media, and politics. Her research appeared in leading management, marketing journals including Marketing Science, Journal of Marketing Research, Management Science, and Journal of Marketing. She has received numerous grants and honors including, Marketing Science Institute Scholar, and earlier the Young Scholar, Awards, Seenu Srinivasan Young Scholar Award in Quantitative Methodology and the Erin Anderson Award for Emerging Mentor and Scholar. Her research has been covered by numerous media outlets such as CNN, Wall Street Journal, New York Times, Washington Post, NPR, Forbes, Politico, Vox, San Francisco Chronicle among others. She is on the Editorial Board of Marketing Science and Journal of Marketing Research, two leading academic journals of marketing. Pinar collaborates with a number of large and small firms for her research. She holds a PhD degree in Marketing and Business Economics and another PhD degree in Industrial Engineering, both from the University of Pittsburgh. She is teaching within the Wharton Executive Education, MBA, and undergraduate programs and is a frequent contributor to Knowledge@Wharton and Wharton Business Radio.
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