{"id":26325,"date":"2017-11-15T22:30:51","date_gmt":"2017-11-16T03:30:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/digital.hbs.edu\/platform-rctom\/submission\/the-global-supply-chain-of-capital-how-jpmorgan-chase-will-cope-with-the-rise-of-isolationism\/"},"modified":"2017-11-15T22:30:51","modified_gmt":"2017-11-16T03:30:51","slug":"the-global-supply-chain-of-capital-how-jpmorgan-chase-will-cope-with-the-rise-of-isolationism","status":"publish","type":"hck-submission","link":"https:\/\/d3.harvard.edu\/platform-rctom\/submission\/the-global-supply-chain-of-capital-how-jpmorgan-chase-will-cope-with-the-rise-of-isolationism\/","title":{"rendered":"The Global Supply Chain of Capital: How JPMorgan Chase Will Cope with the Rise of Isolationism"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>Introduction<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>The global rise of isolationism will create significant headwinds for international trade and the supply chain of financial capital. As the primary intermediaries between the owners and users of capital (<em>see Figure 1<\/em>), banks serve as allocators of capital. Restrictive trade policies and associated limitations on capital flows will inhibit banks\u2019 ability to effectively fulfill this function.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Challenges of Isolationism for JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. (\u201cJPM\u201d) provides capital, makes financial markets, and facilitates commerce (e.g. via payment processing) for its clients within and across national boundaries. To illustrate, a Germany-based car manufacturer could operate a plant in the United States, and source raw materials from China, Japan, and Mexico.<a href=\"#_ftn1\" name=\"_ftnref1\">[1]<\/a> Banks such as JPM play a critical role in operations like this \u2013 providing leverage to fund plant construction, extending lines of credit for manufacturers to manage their working capital, and serving as processors of payments to suppliers. Isolationist policies challenge JPM\u2019s ability to perform these functions and thus to generate profitability.<\/p>\n<p>Isolationist policies will challenge JPM\u2019s ability to perform its core functions for several reasons:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>The rise of isolationism <strong>creates global macroeconomic uncertainty<\/strong>, limiting the willingness of companies to invest and households to spend. With lesser trade and consumption, JPM could face a reduction in demand for its services.<\/li>\n<li>Isolationist policies can <strong>generate the need to alter corporate structures<\/strong>, requiring JPM to reposition its operations. For instance, following Brexit, JPM may no longer be able to easily serve its German clients from its London office, creating significant logistical and cost challenges for the company.<\/li>\n<li>Restrictions on the flow of capital across national boundaries can <strong>increase the cost of lending and transacting payments<\/strong>, potentially inhibiting JPM\u2019s ability to provide the same services to its current clients going forward.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>JPM\u2019s Response to Isolationist Pressure <\/strong><\/p>\n<p>JPM\u2019s profitability relies significantly on its ability to serve its global clients whose businesses transcend national boundaries (<em>see Figure 2<\/em>). Consequently, the company is actively taking steps to address these rising geopolitical risks:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Relocating workers and offices based on actualized isolationist policies: <\/strong>In the short term, following Brexit, JPM has decided to move hundreds of London-based bankers to offices in Luxembourg, Frankfurt, and Dublin.<a href=\"#_ftn2\" name=\"_ftnref2\">[2]<\/a> Given the uncertainty created by isolationism, the company is planning for a \u201chard exit by the United Kingdom\u201d \u2013 a costly albeit responsible approach.<a href=\"#_ftn3\" name=\"_ftnref3\">[3]<\/a><\/li>\n<li><strong>Communicating with clients to anticipate exposures and develop contingencies: <\/strong>Over the short term, JPM is actively engaging with its largest, multinational clients to assess their business risks and JPM\u2019s ability to serve them under tighter trade conditions.<a href=\"#_ftn4\" name=\"_ftnref4\">[4]<\/a> Brexit-like scenarios transform \u201cwithin-border\u201d transactions and relationships to \u201ccross-border\u201d ones, driving up operational expenses and altering the regulatory treatment of assets, potentially limiting JPM\u2019s willingness to provide certain services.<a href=\"#_ftn5\" name=\"_ftnref5\">[5]<\/a> As such, JPM is communicating with its counterparts up and down the capital supply chain to communicate and explore these exposures.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Expanding selectively into new geographies: <\/strong>When JPM expanded into Saudi Arabia, the company was required to open a domestic data center as regulation required storing customer information locally.<a href=\"#_ftn6\" name=\"_ftnref6\">[6]<\/a> This isolationist policy stands in contrast to the company\u2019s cost-saving efforts in 2016 to consolidate existing data facilities into one global center.<a href=\"#_ftn7\" name=\"_ftnref7\">[7]<\/a> As such, over the medium term, the company continues to assess geographic expansion cautiously \u2013 assessing profitability potential with appropriate sensitivities (e.g. increased regulatory cost burdens) considered.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>Additional Short and Medium Term Proposals for JPM<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>JPM should also consider additional steps in the short and medium term:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Lobby governments to limit the impact of isolationism: <\/strong>Leveraging its scale position in the capital supply chain (and its role as a lender to governments), JPM can work in the short term to communicate the ramifications of isolationist policies to policymakers and trade negotiators. Specifically, the company should highlight the positive correlation between GDP and financial openness, as shown by the Bank for International Settlements (<em>see Figure 3<\/em>). However, JPM will need to cautiously utilize its valuable political capital. This will require performing sensitivity analyses to assess which isolationist policies would be most detrimental to the business, and prioritizing lobbying efforts accordingly.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Reprioritize client relationships: <\/strong>In geographies where isolationist policies have been enacted, JPM should consider reprioritizing its client relationships over the medium term. For instance, following Brexit, certain British corporate clients may transition over time to sourcing raw materials locally, and may no longer rely on JPM for banking services. Instead, it may choose to partner with a local British bank, whose transaction costs (and accordingly, its pricing) may be lower given its less globalized operations, relative to JPM. In short, JPM will critically need to account for changes in its competitive landscape under a more isolated global trade paradigm.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>These steps could serve to incrementally help JPM cope with isolationist trends. However, should the company also consider supply chain de-integration (i.e. divestitures) of its subsidiaries in countries where geopolitical risks loom largest? How does this affect its brand as a global financial institution?<\/p>\n<p>Word count: 797<\/p>\n<p><strong>Figure 1: The Global Supply Chain of Financial Capital <\/strong><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/d3.harvard.edu\/platform-rctom\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2017\/11\/Figure-1-6.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-medium wp-image-26359\" src=\"https:\/\/d3.harvard.edu\/platform-rctom\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2017\/11\/Figure-1-6-300x64.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"64\" srcset=\"https:\/\/d3.harvard.edu\/platform-rctom\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2017\/11\/Figure-1-6-300x64.jpg 300w, https:\/\/d3.harvard.edu\/platform-rctom\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2017\/11\/Figure-1-6-768x164.jpg 768w, https:\/\/d3.harvard.edu\/platform-rctom\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2017\/11\/Figure-1-6-600x128.jpg 600w, https:\/\/d3.harvard.edu\/platform-rctom\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2017\/11\/Figure-1-6.jpg 900w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p><strong>Figure 2: JPM\u2019s Corporate and Investment Banking Business by Geography<a href=\"#_ftn8\" name=\"_ftnref8\">[8]<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/d3.harvard.edu\/platform-rctom\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2017\/11\/Figure-2-5.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-medium wp-image-26358\" src=\"https:\/\/d3.harvard.edu\/platform-rctom\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2017\/11\/Figure-2-5-300x113.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"113\" srcset=\"https:\/\/d3.harvard.edu\/platform-rctom\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2017\/11\/Figure-2-5-300x113.jpg 300w, https:\/\/d3.harvard.edu\/platform-rctom\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2017\/11\/Figure-2-5-768x290.jpg 768w, https:\/\/d3.harvard.edu\/platform-rctom\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2017\/11\/Figure-2-5-600x227.jpg 600w, https:\/\/d3.harvard.edu\/platform-rctom\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2017\/11\/Figure-2-5.jpg 871w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p><em>Note: In Mexico and China \u2013 two key American trading partners that have been discussed as targets of U.S. protectionist policies \u2013 JPM generates $400 million and $700 million in revenue, respectively, serving local, American, and international clients who do business in those countries.<a href=\"#_ftn9\" name=\"_ftnref9\"><strong>[9]<\/strong><\/a><\/em><\/p>\n<p><strong>Figure 3: Correlation between Financial Openness, Trade Openness, and GDP per Capita<a href=\"#_ftn10\" name=\"_ftnref10\">[10]<\/a><br \/>\n<\/strong><em>Source: \u201cBank for International Settlements, 87th Annual Report.\u201d Bank for International Settlements. 25 June 2017. Page 98. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bis.org\/publ\/arpdf\/ar2017e.pdf\">https:\/\/www.bis.org\/publ\/arpdf\/ar2017e.pdf<\/a> <\/em><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/d3.harvard.edu\/platform-rctom\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2017\/11\/Figure-3-5.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-medium wp-image-26369\" src=\"https:\/\/d3.harvard.edu\/platform-rctom\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2017\/11\/Figure-3-5-300x212.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"212\" srcset=\"https:\/\/d3.harvard.edu\/platform-rctom\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2017\/11\/Figure-3-5-300x212.jpg 300w, https:\/\/d3.harvard.edu\/platform-rctom\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2017\/11\/Figure-3-5-600x424.jpg 600w, https:\/\/d3.harvard.edu\/platform-rctom\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2017\/11\/Figure-3-5.jpg 748w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"#_ftnref1\" name=\"_ftn1\">[1]<\/a> LeBeau, Phil. \u201cBMW adding 1,000 jobs at South Carolina plant\u201d. CNBC. 26 June 2017. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2017\/06\/26\/bmw-adding-1000-jobs-at-south-carolina-plant.html\">https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2017\/06\/26\/bmw-adding-1000-jobs-at-south-carolina-plant.html<\/a><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"#_ftnref2\" name=\"_ftn2\">[2]<\/a> Martin, Matthew; Finch, Gavin. \u201cJPMorgan to Move Hundreds of Staff to Three EU Offices on Brexit\u201d Bloomberg. 3 May 2017. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2017-05-03\/jpmorgan-to-move-hundreds-of-staff-to-three-eu-offices-on-brexit\">https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2017-05-03\/jpmorgan-to-move-hundreds-of-staff-to-three-eu-offices-on-brexi<\/a><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"#_ftnref3\" name=\"_ftn3\">[3]<\/a> Dimon, Jamie. \u201cJPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. 2016 Annual Letter to Shareholders.\u201d JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. Page 11. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.jpmorganchase.com\/corporate\/investor-relations\/document\/ar2016-ceolettershareholders.pdf\">https:\/\/www.jpmorganchase.com\/corporate\/investor-relations\/document\/ar2016-ceolettershareholders.pdf<\/a><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"#_ftnref4\" name=\"_ftn4\">[4]<\/a> Dimon, Jamie. \u201cJPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. 2016 Annual Letter to Shareholders.\u201d JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. Page 11. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.jpmorganchase.com\/corporate\/investor-relations\/document\/ar2016-ceolettershareholders.pdf\">https:\/\/www.jpmorganchase.com\/corporate\/investor-relations\/document\/ar2016-ceolettershareholders.pdf<\/a><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"#_ftnref5\" name=\"_ftn5\">[5]<\/a> Agathocleous, Alexis; Evagorou, Clea. \u201cLeaving the EU: What will it mean for banking and<\/p>\n<p>the financial services industry?\u201d Deloitte. Page 7. <a href=\"https:\/\/www2.deloitte.com\/content\/dam\/Deloitte\/cy\/Documents\/financial-services\/CY_FinancialServices_Brexit_Noexp.pdf\">https:\/\/www2.deloitte.com\/content\/dam\/Deloitte\/cy\/Documents\/financial-services\/CY_FinancialServices_Brexit_Noexp.pdf<\/a><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"#_ftnref6\" name=\"_ftn6\">[6]<\/a> Monga, Vipal; Demos, Telis. \u201cU.S. Banks Want Freer Flow of Data in Nafta Pact\u201d. The Wall Street Journal . 2 Nov 2017. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.wsj.com\/articles\/u-s-banks-want-freer-flow-of-data-in-nafta-pact-1509624001\">https:\/\/www.wsj.com\/articles\/u-s-banks-want-freer-flow-of-data-in-nafta-pact-1509624001<\/a><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"#_ftnref7\" name=\"_ftn7\">[7]<\/a> JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. Management Team. \u201cJPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. 2016 Annual Report.\u201d JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. Page 2. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.jpmorganchase.com\/corporate\/investor-relations\/document\/ar2016-lettertoshareholders.pdf\">https:\/\/www.jpmorganchase.com\/corporate\/investor-relations\/document\/ar2016-lettertoshareholders.pdf<\/a><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"#_ftnref8\" name=\"_ftn8\">[8]<\/a> JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. Management Team. \u201cJPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. 2016 Management Discussion and Analysis.\u201d JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. Page 62. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.jpmorganchase.com\/corporate\/investor-relations\/document\/Management-discussion-analysis-2016.pdf\">https:\/\/www.jpmorganchase.com\/corporate\/investor-relations\/document\/Management-discussion-analysis-2016.pdf<\/a><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"#_ftnref9\" name=\"_ftn9\">[9]<\/a> Dimon, Jamie. \u201cJPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. 2016 Annual Letter to Shareholders.\u201d JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. Pages 11-12. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.jpmorganchase.com\/corporate\/investor-relations\/document\/ar2016-ceolettershareholders.pdf\">https:\/\/www.jpmorganchase.com\/corporate\/investor-relations\/document\/ar2016-ceolettershareholders.pdf<\/a><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"#_ftnref10\" name=\"_ftn10\">[10]<\/a> \u201cBank for International Settlements, 87<sup>th<\/sup> Annual Report.\u201d Bank for International Settlements. 25 June 2017. Page 98. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bis.org\/publ\/arpdf\/ar2017e.pdf\">https:\/\/www.bis.org\/publ\/arpdf\/ar2017e.pdf<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Restrictive trade policies and associated limitations on capital flows will inhibit the ability of banks, such as JPMorgan Chase, to effectively provide capital, make financial markets, and facilitate commerce within and across national boundaries. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":10328,"featured_media":26438,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","template":"","categories":[2515,3239],"class_list":["post-26325","hck-submission","type-hck-submission","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-international-trade","category-isolationism","hck-taxonomy-organization-jp-morgan","hck-taxonomy-industry-financial-services","hck-taxonomy-country-united-states"],"connected_submission_link":"https:\/\/d3.harvard.edu\/platform-rctom\/assignment\/rc-tom-challenge-2017\/","yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.3 - 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