{"id":24202,"date":"2017-11-15T18:43:08","date_gmt":"2017-11-15T23:43:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/digital.hbs.edu\/platform-rctom\/submission\/ypf-securing-the-supply-for-vaca-muertas-shale-development\/"},"modified":"2017-11-15T23:00:18","modified_gmt":"2017-11-16T04:00:18","slug":"ypf-securing-the-supply-chain-for-developing-vaca-muerta","status":"publish","type":"hck-submission","link":"https:\/\/d3.harvard.edu\/platform-rctom\/submission\/ypf-securing-the-supply-chain-for-developing-vaca-muerta\/","title":{"rendered":"YPF: Securing the supply chain for developing Vaca Muerta"},"content":{"rendered":"<h2>Shale Oil &amp; Gas in Argentina<\/h2>\n<p>Natural resource avilability can define a whole country development thesis. This might be the case for Argentina: the <em>Vaca Muerta<\/em> oil &amp; gas formation contains the world\u2019s second largest shale gas and fourth largest shale oil reserve<sup>1<\/sup>. This constitutes a unique opportunity for the country to become energetically self-sufficient, commenters agree<sup>2 3<\/sup>.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center\"><a href=\"https:\/\/d3.harvard.edu\/platform-rctom\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2017\/11\/Exhibit-1-2.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\" wp-image-24238 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/d3.harvard.edu\/platform-rctom\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2017\/11\/Exhibit-1-2-300x136.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"667\" height=\"302\" srcset=\"https:\/\/d3.harvard.edu\/platform-rctom\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2017\/11\/Exhibit-1-2-300x136.png 300w, https:\/\/d3.harvard.edu\/platform-rctom\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2017\/11\/Exhibit-1-2-768x348.png 768w, https:\/\/d3.harvard.edu\/platform-rctom\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2017\/11\/Exhibit-1-2-1024x464.png 1024w, https:\/\/d3.harvard.edu\/platform-rctom\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2017\/11\/Exhibit-1-2-600x272.png 600w, https:\/\/d3.harvard.edu\/platform-rctom\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2017\/11\/Exhibit-1-2.png 1941w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 667px) 100vw, 667px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center\"><em><strong>Exhibit 1: Oil &amp; Gas shale resources in Argentina<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n<p>The opportunity will come along with massive impact: analysts expect annual investments of $10-15B, 40.000-60.000 new job positions and 3-4% impact on national GDP<sup>4<\/sup>. Requirements for the supply chain will simultaneously escalate with the increasing levels of well drilling. YPF, Argentina\u2019s National oil company, holds roughly 40% of the Vaca Muerta acreage<sup>5<\/sup>, and therefore will have a key role.<\/p>\n<h3><\/h3>\n<h2>Supply Chain for Shale operations<\/h2>\n<p>Field development requires a wide range of equipment, services and materials, with varying degrees of capital, technological and labor involvement. A typical well cost structure reflects this variety:<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center\"><strong><em>\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/d3.harvard.edu\/platform-rctom\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2017\/11\/Exhibit-2.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\" wp-image-24228 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/d3.harvard.edu\/platform-rctom\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2017\/11\/Exhibit-2-300x182.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"371\" height=\"225\" srcset=\"https:\/\/d3.harvard.edu\/platform-rctom\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2017\/11\/Exhibit-2-300x182.png 300w, https:\/\/d3.harvard.edu\/platform-rctom\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2017\/11\/Exhibit-2-600x365.png 600w, https:\/\/d3.harvard.edu\/platform-rctom\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2017\/11\/Exhibit-2.png 735w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 371px) 100vw, 371px\" \/><\/a><\/em><\/strong><em><strong>Exhibit 2: Typical well cost composition \u2013 based on IHS<sup>7<\/sup><\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n<p>Some purchasing categories are typically sourced locally. Water, given its bulky nature, benefits from low transportation costs. Other categories are better suited for international supply; given a variety of reasons:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Lack of local suppliers: <\/strong>for services that require advanced technological expertise, only available to a handful of global providers (e.g. directional drilling services).<\/li>\n<li><strong>Price competitiveness of international sources:<\/strong> when lower total costs can be achieved by sourcing internationally (e.g. Chinese manufactured piping).<\/li>\n<li><strong>Opportunistic access to favorable prices: e.g. <\/strong>for services or equipment with global excess capacities driving low rates (e.g. drilling rigs in 2015-16).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>This global nature implies a strong exposure to changes in international trade regulations, which could limit the access (price or volume) to the supply markets.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h2>YPF approach to major supply categories<\/h2>\n<p>Argentina\u2019s recent history included heavy currency controls and import restrictions<sup>8<\/sup>; government officials and independent analysts recognized this regulations affected the industry sourcing cost<sup>9 10<\/sup>. Although special conditions<sup>b<\/sup> have provided preferential treatment for the industry, YPF specific strategies helped secure local supply for key categories:<\/p>\n<p><strong><em>Proppant<sup>a<\/sup><\/em>: In-house development<\/strong><br \/>\nSince 2015<sup>11<\/sup>, YPF participates in sand production, as a way to replace imports. With investments of $500M, it owns capacity to extract, process and store 500,000 tons annually. While costs are stated as a major reason<sup>12<\/sup>, in-house also hedges against changes in import conditions.<\/p>\n<p><em><strong>Drilling rigs: Long term contracts<\/strong><br \/>\n<\/em>In 2014, YPF signed deals with American based Helmerich &amp; Payne<sup>13<\/sup> (H&amp;P) and Bermuda-based Archer Limited for the supply of 15 <em>moving<sup>c<\/sup> <\/em>rigs. The contracts established a long-term (5 years) and monetary ($1.200M) commitment, securing the availability and nationalization for the subsequent years.<\/p>\n<h2 style=\"text-align: center\"><iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"Walking rigs de YPF en Vaca Muerta\" width=\"640\" height=\"480\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/DnyhIVCh0mo?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" referrerpolicy=\"strict-origin-when-cross-origin\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe><strong><br \/>\nExhibit 3: YPF walking rigs<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p><em><strong>Local supplier development<\/strong><br \/>\n<\/em>YPF has historically held programs to develop local suppliers. In December 2016, a supplier performance program was established to improve competitiveness of local providers through improved quality and efficiency. The program focuses on improving efficiency in topics including planning and control, cost management, plant lay-out and maintenance <sup>14<\/sup>.<\/p>\n<h2><\/h2>\n<h2>Additional preventive actions<\/h2>\n<p>While, globally, countries are increasingly flirting with ideas of nationalization and isolationism, Argentina has taken steps on the opposite direction. Most recently, a cut on import tariffs was established in August 2017<sup>15<\/sup>. However, local content policies such as <em>Compre Neuquino<\/em> still persist<sup>16<\/sup>, and, local actors from pipe manufacturers to trade unions have expressed their concerns on globalized trade impact<sup>17 18<\/sup>. While costly, certain measures can be considered to cope with scenarios of future restriction in access to the global supply chain:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Expand in-house development:<\/strong> evaluating potential vertical expansion to secure the supply for specific services, following the example of companies such as Pioneer<sup>19<\/sup>, which have business activities in services such as pressure pumping or well services.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Leading local supplier development:<\/strong> being a major procurer, YPF can leverage its technological and engineering expertise, and provide conditions that enhance the long-term development of cost effective local solutions.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Strategic partnerships:<\/strong> For services that require advanced technology (ie. Directional drilling), given the unlikelihood of development locally or in-house, long-term partnerships with global providers can better secure provision of such services, instead of short-term contracts.<\/li>\n<li><strong><em>Up-fronting<\/em> capital investments<\/strong>: in periods of favorable import regulation, specific imports can be realized in advance, building supply inventories or drilled wells stocks<sup>d<\/sup>; these can be accessed in the future while local supply chain develops.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2><\/h2>\n<h2>Looking forward<\/h2>\n<p>While recent developments in Argentina do not point to increased isolationism, the global <em>zeitgeist<\/em> and a complex local ecosystem endorse the prevalence of risks for international trade access. However, since preventive actions imply a heavy burden on operational and capital costs, two major questions arise:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><em>What is the best approach, considering the trade-off between cost of prevention and likelihood of trade restriction scenarios?<\/em><\/li>\n<li><em>Should the company follow a preventive approach or only act reactively when risks become real?<\/em><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>(Word count = 788)<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h4>Notes:<\/h4>\n<p>A. Proppant (Hydraulic fracturing proppant), typically sand, treated sand or other artificial ceramic materials, are injected into the well during the hydraulic fracturing stage, to keep an induced hydraulic fracture open.<\/p>\n<p>B. Decree 927\/2013 establishes a preferred import regime for the Oil &amp; Gas industry.<\/p>\n<p>C. Moving rigs are drilling rigs with capacity to laterally relocate within a field without need for dismantling, typically through a <em>skidding <\/em>or <em>walking <\/em>technology.<\/p>\n<p>D. Wells can remain unfinished, for commercial or technical reasons, in different stages of development. For example, a drilled well can stay unfinished until a completion set is available; a completed well can remain offline, waiting for better commercial terms for production.<\/p>\n<h4><\/h4>\n<h4>Citations:<\/h4>\n<ol>\n<li>US Energy Information Administration; \u201c<em>Technically Recoverable Shale Oil and Shale Gas Resources: An Assessment of 137 Shale Formations in 41 Countries Outside the United States\u201d<\/em>; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.eia.gov\/analysis\/studies\/worldshalegas\/pdf\/overview.pdf\">https:\/\/www.eia.gov\/analysis\/studies\/worldshalegas\/pdf\/overview.pdf<\/a><\/li>\n<li>Cristian Folgar (Atlantic Council); \u201c<em>The New Argentina:<\/em> <em>Time to Double Down on the Energy Sector?\u201d<\/em>; <a href=\"http:\/\/publications.atlanticcouncil.org\/argentina-energy\/ac_argentina.pdf\">http:\/\/publications.atlanticcouncil.org\/argentina-energy\/ac_argentina.pdf<\/a><\/li>\n<li>E&amp;P Mag; \u201c<em>Argentina\u2019s Vaca Muerta Shale\u201d<\/em>; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.epmag.com\/argentinas-vaca-muerta-shale-718661#p=full\">https:\/\/www.epmag.com\/argentinas-vaca-muerta-shale-718661#p=full<\/a><\/li>\n<li>Argentine Oil &amp; Gas Institute (IAPG); \u201c<em>An\u00e1lisis y Proyecci\u00f3n de Impactos Econ\u00f3micos Esperados del Desarrollo de los Hidrocarburos No Convencionales en Argentina: Cuantificaci\u00f3n de Impactos Econ\u00f3micos del Desarrollo en Escala de Vaca Muerta en la Provincia de Neuqu\u00e9n<\/em>\u201d; <a href=\"http:\/\/www.iapg.org.ar\/download\/1000pozos.pdf\">http:\/\/www.iapg.org.ar\/download\/1000pozos.pdf<\/a><\/li>\n<li>Jean Grey, \u201c<em>Which lessons can Vaca Muerta learn from the US?<\/em>\u201d; <a href=\"https:\/\/d3.harvard.edu\/platform-rctom\/submission\/which-lessons-can-vaca-muerta-learn-from-the-us\/\">https:\/\/d3.harvard.edu\/platform-rctom\/submission\/which-lessons-can-vaca-muerta-learn-from-the-us\/<\/a><\/li>\n<li>Carlos T. James: \u201c<em>Challenges to developing Argentina\u2019s shale gas reserves<\/em>\u201d; <a href=\"http:\/\/carlosstjames.com\/renewable-energy\/challenges-to-developing-argentinas-shale-gas-reserves\/\">http:\/\/carlosstjames.com\/renewable-energy\/challenges-to-developing-argentinas-shale-gas-reserves\/<\/a><\/li>\n<li>Trends in U.S. Oil and Natural Gas Upstream Costs; EIA; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.eia.gov\/analysis\/studies\/drilling\/pdf\/upstream.pdf\">https:\/\/www.eia.gov\/analysis\/studies\/drilling\/pdf\/upstream.pdf<\/a><\/li>\n<li>\u201cCepo cambiario: cronolog\u00eda de estos cuatro a\u00f1os de restricciones\u201d; December 2015; <a href=\"http:\/\/www.lanacion.com.ar\/1854739-cepo-cambiario-cronologia-de-estos-cuatro-anos-de-restricciones\">http:\/\/www.lanacion.com.ar\/1854739-cepo-cambiario-cronologia-de-estos-cuatro-anos-de-restricciones<\/a><\/li>\n<li>\u201cMoreno advirti\u00f3 que el cepo a las importaciones seguir\u00e1 otros dos a\u00f1os\u201d; September 2015; <a href=\"http:\/\/www.lanacion.com.ar\/1616084-moreno-advirtio-que-el-cepo-a-las-importaciones-seguira-otros-dos-anos\">http:\/\/www.lanacion.com.ar\/1616084-moreno-advirtio-que-el-cepo-a-las-importaciones-seguira-otros-dos-anos<\/a><\/li>\n<li>KJETIL SOLBR\u00c6KKE AND BIELENIS VILLANUEVA TRIANA, Rystad Energy; \u201cIS VACA MUERTA COMPETITIVE IN TODAY&#8217;S MARKET?\u201d; <a href=\"http:\/\/www.ogfj.com\/articles\/print\/volume-13\/issue-11\/features\/market-development-in-argentina.html\">http:\/\/www.ogfj.com\/articles\/print\/volume-13\/issue-11\/features\/market-development-in-argentina.html<\/a><\/li>\n<li>Esteban Lafuente, Apertura; \u201cQu\u00e9 son las arenas de sost\u00e9n, la nueva apuesta de YPF\u201d; <a href=\"http:\/\/www.apertura.com\/negocios\/Que-son-las-arenas-de-sosten-la-nueva-apuesta-de-YPF-20150423-0006.html\">http:\/\/www.apertura.com\/negocios\/Que-son-las-arenas-de-sosten-la-nueva-apuesta-de-YPF-20150423-0006.html<\/a><\/li>\n<li>YPF, \u201cYPF empezar\u00e1 a producir arena para bajar un 10% el costo de pozos en Vaca Muerta\u201d, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.ypf.com\/energiaypf\/Novedades\/Paginas\/YPF-empezara-a-producir-arena-para-bajar-un-10-porciento-el-costo-de-pozos-en-Vaca-Muerta.aspx\">http:\/\/www.ypf.com\/energiaypf\/Novedades\/Paginas\/YPF-empezara-a-producir-arena-para-bajar-un-10-porciento-el-costo-de-pozos-en-Vaca-Muerta.aspx<\/a><\/li>\n<li>YPF, \u201cSumamos 15 nuevos equipos de perforaci\u00f3n de \u00faltima generaci\u00f3n\u201d, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.ypf.com\/YPFHoy\/YPFSalaPrensa\/Paginas\/Noticias\/15-nuevos-equipos-de-perforacion-de-ultima-generacion.aspx\">http:\/\/www.ypf.com\/YPFHoy\/YPFSalaPrensa\/Paginas\/Noticias\/15-nuevos-equipos-de-perforacion-de-ultima-generacion.aspx<\/a><\/li>\n<li>TELAM, \u201cYPF y um programa para mejorar la efici\u00eancia y productividad de sus proveedores\u201d, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.telam.com.ar\/notas\/201612\/173911-ypf-productividad-proveedores.html\">http:\/\/www.telam.com.ar\/notas\/201612\/173911-ypf-productividad-proveedores.html<\/a><\/li>\n<li>Linkedin, \u201cArgentina cuts tariffs on used oil equipment imports to develop Vaca Muerta\u201d, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.linkedin.com\/pulse\/argentina-cuts-tariffs-used-oil-equipment-imports-develop-leporati\">https:\/\/www.linkedin.com\/pulse\/argentina-cuts-tariffs-used-oil-equipment-imports-develop-leporati<\/a><\/li>\n<li>Compre Neuquino, <a href=\"http:\/\/cvh.cpymeadeneu.com.ar\/pdf\/LEY2755%20-%20Compre%20Neuquino%20para%20Operadoras%20Hidrocarburos%20y%20Mineria.pdf\">http:\/\/cvh.cpymeadeneu.com.ar\/pdf\/LEY2755%20-%20Compre%20Neuquino%20para%20Operadoras%20Hidrocarburos%20y%20Mineria.pdf<\/a><\/li>\n<li>Luc Cohen, Reuters, \u201cRPT-Tariff fight roils Argentina\u2019s shale patch as Macri opens trade\u201d, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/article\/argentina-shale\/rpt-tariff-fight-roils-argentinas-shale-patch-as-macri-opens-trade-idUSL1N1K301X\">https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/article\/argentina-shale\/rpt-tariff-fight-roils-argentinas-shale-patch-as-macri-opens-trade-idUSL1N1K301X<\/a><\/li>\n<li>Francisco Aldaya, Buenos Aires Herald, \u201cChinese threat looms large over local steel industry\u201d, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.buenosairesherald.com\/article\/223631\/chinese-threat-looms-large--over-local-steel-industry-\">http:\/\/www.buenosairesherald.com\/article\/223631\/chinese-threat-looms-large&#8211;over-local-steel-industry-<\/a><\/li>\n<li>Pioneer website; accessed November 2017; <a href=\"http:\/\/www.pxd.com\/operations\/vertical-integration\">http:\/\/www.pxd.com\/operations\/vertical-integration<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>While Vaca Muerta formation provides a unique opportunity for Argentinean national oil company YPF, limitations to access international supply could become a major headache.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":10350,"featured_media":24504,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","template":"","categories":[],"class_list":["post-24202","hck-submission","type-hck-submission","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","hck-taxonomy-organization-ypf","hck-taxonomy-industry-energy","hck-taxonomy-country-argentina"],"connected_submission_link":"https:\/\/d3.harvard.edu\/platform-rctom\/assignment\/rc-tom-challenge-2017\/","yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>YPF: Securing the supply chain for developing Vaca Muerta - Technology and Operations Management<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" 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