{"id":22478,"date":"2017-11-14T16:31:40","date_gmt":"2017-11-14T21:31:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/digital.hbs.edu\/platform-rctom\/submission\/on-trucking-automation-how-the-technological-road-forward-could-leave-millions-behind\/"},"modified":"2017-11-14T16:31:40","modified_gmt":"2017-11-14T21:31:40","slug":"on-trucking-automation-how-the-technological-road-forward-could-leave-millions-behind","status":"publish","type":"hck-submission","link":"https:\/\/d3.harvard.edu\/platform-rctom\/submission\/on-trucking-automation-how-the-technological-road-forward-could-leave-millions-behind\/","title":{"rendered":"On Trucking Automation: How the Technological Road Forward Could Leave Millions Behind"},"content":{"rendered":"

On a Thursday morning in late October 2016, an 18-wheel freight delivery truck made the 120-mile journey along I-25 from Fort Collins to Colorado Springs, hauling over 50,000 cans of Budweiser beer with it. This routine delivery would be an uninspiring story except for one omitted detail: for the entire highway journey, there was no one in the driver\u2019s seat. In a landmark road test, Otto, an automated trucking technology firm owned by Uber, had successfully demonstrated the safety and reliability of its driverless trucking technology.1<\/sup>\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0<\/sup><\/p>\n

Otto\u2019s nascent demonstration signaled a drastic paradigm shift for the future of trucking in America \u2013 automated trucking technology is real, and it will disrupt the industry much sooner than many expect. Speculation of driverless cars for passenger transportation has grown popular in recent years, but many signs point to driverless technology making landfall in commercial trucking first. \u201cPlatooning,\u201d a caravan-type version of automated trucking, is already being widely tested in Europe.2<\/sup><\/p>\n

The American trucking industry, and in particular, the American Trucking Associations (ATA), the largest trade association representing the industry in the U.S., should take note and prepare for the inevitable transition now. Failure to do so risks backing them into a corner of reactionary policy-making when the full potential of driverless disruption is realized. Leading analysis suggests that disruption will bring massive benefits to the industry, along with equally relevant costs.<\/p>\n

It is estimated that the proliferation of automated trucking technology could yield cost savings to the freight industry of $168B annually, generated from reductions in labor, fuel, and accident costs combined with increased asset utilization and productivity.3 <\/sup>However, these benefits will not be achieved without commensurate societal costs, which will manifest primarily in the form of job displacement. One of the most popular occupations in the country, the freight industry employs over 3.5M truck drivers and over 7.8M people in trucking-related jobs across America.4 <\/sup>The rapidity of driverless technology development has led to estimates of up to a 70% labor force reduction \u2013 2.4M jobs \u2013 by the year 2030.5 <\/sup>These figures must not be ignored, and will certainly require close collaboration between industry heads and regulatory bodies in order to smoothly usher in a new era of transportation.<\/p>\n

To address the growing trend towards automation, the board of the ATA approved and released its first \u201ccomprehensive\u201d Automated Truck Policy in October 2017. The plan details the ATA\u2019s priorities and goals regarding collaboration with federal, state, and local governments in making the transition to an automated trucking landscape.6<\/sup> Highlights of the plan include:<\/p>\n