According to the Department of Defense, climate change is a \u201cthreat multiplier\u201d because its effects \u201cwill intensify the challenges of global instability, hunger, poverty and conflict\u201d [2]. \u00a0Rising sea levels and more frequent extreme weather events will have a direct impact on the United States\u2019 strategic and defensive interest, \u00a0But climate change is also indirectly threatening the United States, and is expected to generate more political instability and mass migrations in decades to come.<\/p>\n
Rising Sea Levels.\u00a0 <\/em><\/strong>Rising sea levels will increasingly threaten strategic military bases in the United States and throughout the world.\u00a0 NASA estimates that global sea levels rose an average of 6.7 inches (17 centimeters) during the 20th century [3], and may rise as much as 3 feet or more during the 21st century [4].<\/p>\n Consequently, as many as 19 key military bases may be jeopardized by rising sea levels [5]. \u00a0For example, one study estimates that four bases, including NAS Key West, are at risk of losing 75-95% of their land by 2100 (see chart below) [6].\u00a0 The Department of Defense will need to decide between environmental mitigation, land reclamation or complete relocation strategies for these bases [7].<\/p>\n \u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Unpredictable, Extreme Weather.<\/em><\/strong>\u00a0 Event attribution\u2014especially in the case of climate change\u2014remains a probabilistic science [8]. \u00a0However, annual reports by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) have repeatedly cited climate change as an influencing factor for extreme weather and climate events [9].<\/p>\n Extreme weather events can hinder military and intelligence operations.\u00a0 For example, extreme storms may inhibit aerial surveillance or reconnaissance capabilities, or may increasingly divert military resources towards humanitarian assistance following extreme weather occurrences [10].<\/p>\n Global Instability.<\/em><\/strong>\u00a0 Climate change also poses severe indirect threats to the United States.\u00a0 For example, the increasingly impactive effects of climate change\u2014such as water shortages or disruptions or reductions in agricultural production\u2014could cause political instability and mass migrations in developing countries [11].<\/p>\n \u201cMankind\u2019s relationship with the natural world is aggravating these problems and is a potential source of crisis,\u201d admits U.S. Central Intelligence Agency Director John O. Brennan, \u201cExtreme weather, along with public policies affecting food and water suppliers, can worsen or create humanitarian crises.\u00a0 Of most immediate concern, sharply reduced crop yields in multiple places simultaneously could trigger a shock in food prices with devastating effect, especially in already fragile regions such as Africa, the Middle East, and South Asia\u201d [12].<\/p>\n Fighting the \u201cHot War\u201d<\/strong><\/p>\n The Department of Defense now recognizes climate change as \u201ca present security threat, not strictly a long-term risk\u201d [13].<\/p>\n For now, the Department of Defense is responding with dual strategies of Adaptation (planning for climate change effects) and Mitigation (reducing the Department\u2019s contribution to climate change) [14]. \u00a0The Department of Defense is now using climate change considerations for evaluating and modifying its range of military and supply chain operations, including its training and testing programs and its artificial and natural infrastructures [15].<\/p>\n Unfortunately, these dual strategies are reactive, and only deal with the symptoms of climate change.\u00a0 Even the three goals outlined in the Department of Defense\u2019s Climate Change Adaptation Roadmap<\/em>\u2014to identify and assess the effects of climate change, to incorporate climate change considerations across the full range of missions and activities, and to collaborate with internal and external entities to understand, assess and respond to climate change realities\u2014do not address the root of the problem.<\/p>\n In the case of climate change, the Department of Defense should heed the advice of one of their most respected strategists.\u00a0 More than two thousand years ago, Sun Tzu advised that \u201c[s]ecurity against defeat implies defensive tactics,\u201d but the \u201cability to defeat the enemy means taking the offensive\u201d [16].<\/p>\n In a similar way, the Department of Defense should take the offensive against climate change.\u00a0 While they are already taking significant steps to \u201cgreen\u201d the Department of Defense, these steps are reactive.\u00a0 The Department of Defense also needs to speak louder and more often on this issue, to help evangelize the United States and its allies on the imminent dangers presented by a warming planet.<\/p>\n Otherwise, the \u201cHot War\u201d of the 21st Century might be our last war.<\/p>\n (739 words)<\/em><\/p>\n [1]\u00a0 With an annual budget of $582.7 billion, the Department of Defense is one of the largest government entities in the world.\u00a0 See <\/em>\u201cDepartment of Defense (DoD) Releases Fiscal Year 2017 President\u2019s Budget Proposal,\u201d Press Release, U.S. Department of Defense (Feb. 9, 2016), available at<\/em> http:\/\/www.defense.gov\/News\/News-Releases\/News-Release-View\/Article\/652687\/department-of-defense-dod-releases-fiscal-year-2017-presidents-budget-proposal<\/a><\/p>\n [2] \u00a02014 <\/em>Climate Change Adaptation Roadmap<\/em>, U.S. Department of Defense (2014), available at https:\/\/www.scribd.com\/doc\/242845848\/Read-DoD-report-2014-Climate-Change-Adaptation-Roadmap<\/a>.<\/p>\n [3]\u00a0 \u201cHistorical Records May Underestimate Sea Level Rise,\u201d NASA Global Climate Change (Oct. 19, 2016) (noting that scientists may have underestimated the average sea level rise due to ineffective placement of measuring instruments), available at <\/em>http:\/\/climate.nasa.gov\/news\/2504\/historical-records-may-underestimate-sea-level-rise<\/a>.<\/p>\n [4]\u00a0 As <\/em>Our Ocean Warms, Sea Level Rises<\/em>, NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory (accessed November 2016), available at<\/em> http:\/\/www.jpl.nasa.gov\/infographics\/infographic.view.php?id=11298<\/a>.<\/p>\n [5]\u00a0 \u201cGeneral Keys: The Military Thinks Climate Change Is Serious,\u201d The Center for Climate & Security: Exploring the Security Risks of Climate Change (July 7, 2016), available at<\/em> https:\/\/climateandsecurity.org\/2016\/07\/07\/general-keys-the-military-thinks-climate-change-is-serious<\/a>.<\/p>\n [6]\u00a0 \u201cThe US Military on the Front Lines of Rising Seas,\u201d Union of Concerned Scientists (accessed November 2016), available at<\/em> http:\/\/www.ucsusa.org\/sites\/default\/files\/attach\/2016\/07\/front-lines-of-rising-seas-key-findings.pdf<\/a>.<\/p>\n [7]\u00a0 Id.<\/em><\/p>\n [8]\u00a0 Explaining Extreme Events of 2014 from a Climate Perspective<\/em>, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol. 96, No. 12 (December 2015), available at <\/em>http:\/\/journals.ametsoc.org\/doi\/pdf\/10.1175\/BAMS-ExplainingExtremeEvents2014.1<\/a>.<\/p>\n [9]\u00a0 \u201cNew Report Finds Human-Caused Climate Change Increased the Severity of Many Extreme Events in 2014,\u201d Press Release, NOAA (Nov. 5, 2015), available at<\/em> http:\/\/www.noaanews.noaa.gov\/stories2015\/110515-new-report-human-caused-climate-change-increased-the-severity-of-many-extreme-events-in-2014.html<\/a>.<\/p>\n [10] \u00a02014 Climate Change Adaptation Roadmap<\/em>, supra FN [1] p.4.<\/p>\n [11]\u00a0 See, e.g.<\/em>, Security Address<\/em>, Executive Secretary Christiana Figueres, United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (Feb. 15, 2011), available at <\/em>http:\/\/unfccc.int\/files\/press\/statements\/application\/pdf\/speech_seguridad_20110215.pdf<\/a>.<\/p>\n [12]\u00a0 Brennan Delivers Remakrs at the Center for Strategic & International Studies Global Security Forum 2015, Press Release, U.S. Central Intelligence Agency (Nov. 16, 2015), available at<\/em> https:\/\/www.cia.gov\/news-information\/speeches-testimony\/2015-speeches-testimony\/brennan-remarks-at-csis-global-security-forum-2015.html<\/a>.<\/p>\n [13]\u00a0 National Security Implications of Climate-Related Risks and a Changing Climate<\/em>, Department of Defense, Report Ref. Id. 8-6475571 p.14 (July 23, 2015), available at <\/em>http:\/\/archive.defense.gov\/pubs\/150724-congressional-report-on-national-implications-of-climate-change.pdf?source=govdelivery<\/a>.<\/p>\n![\"risingseas\"](\"https:\/\/d3.harvard.edu\/platform-rctom\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2016\/11\/RisingSeas.png\")
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