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Noah Bricker
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Great article and I enjoyed the preview of the future. My main concerns with ADS-B system are not the incredible efficiencies or whether the technology should be implemented. I know that computers often perform better than humans in certain tasks and flying would appear to be one of them. However, I’m more concerned about the effects of a system outage on the larger network. Today, each pilot’s actions within their plane is independent (for the most part). But once all flight paths are acting on the same technology, we’ve created an intricate network that is susceptible to Chaos. How do we create protections within the system to isolate the effect of outages and maybe even more importantly, protect against targeted attacks.
Great piece – informative and also changed my perspective on the issue. In terms of market concentration, I agree with the author that this technology will only increase the leverage and advantages of large farms in the agriculture industry. Consolidation is happening rapidly in the US and spreading to the developing world as companies continue to learn how economies of scale impact the business. While many folks would argue to protect “small farmers” as a market economist who believes in efficient markets, if geospatial data enables large farmers to realize higher yields and lower risks, I argue in favor of the consolidation. The role of regulators will be to make sure that those efficiencies are passed onto consumers and not used to price gauge consumers.
Customers may one day desire a warm greeting from a customer service rep or cashier, however, consumers will have to pay for this greeting. Are you willing to pay another dollar for your Yogurt each time you checkout? My opinion is no. Human interaction will start to come at a premium but only in “luxury” cases. You will pay for the service during a luxury dining experience but not checking out in the grocery store.
Customers may one day desire a warm greeting from a customer service rep or cashier, however, consumers will have to pay for this greeting. Are you willing to pay another dollar for your Yogurt each time you checkout? My opinion is no. Human interaction will start to come at a premium but only in “luxury” cases. You will pay for the service during a luxury dining experience but not checking out in the grocery store.
I do not think that Hotel Tonight will be able to maintain a competitive advantage. Machine learning is now part of almost every Fortune 500s 5 year plan. Expedia, AirBnB etc. are all using machine learning today and Hotel Tonight, as far as I can tell, is only marginally ahead of those competitors if at all. Hotel Tonight’s saving grace, in my opinion, will be if they’re acquired by a larger competitor for their data science talent or platform, which is becoming a common way to acquire talent in a space with so few qualified workers.
To address the first question in the reflections section, I do not think that manufacturing companies will become intellectual property companies. While the 3D Printing space to some extent democratizes manufacturing, I believe most customers will still go to producers who can achieve vast economies of scale. The reasons are several fold:
1. Lower Costs – Nike and Adidas will still be able to acquire premium input materials at a much lower cost than individual consumers – hence overall production costs will be lower
2. Brands – Brands will still be important to customers and while the product may not be as differentiated, the brand meaning will be (a la dove etc.)
3. R&D / Technological Innovation – Retail companies and manufacturers will still be able to invest large sums of money into making the next best product, which consumers will not be able to do