{"id":1322,"date":"2020-08-21T16:59:53","date_gmt":"2020-08-21T20:59:53","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/digital.hbs.edu\/platform-hbappitch\/submission\/d-risk-oil-gas-solution-for-risk-management-of-capital-projects\/"},"modified":"2020-08-25T15:17:30","modified_gmt":"2020-08-25T19:17:30","slug":"d-risk-oil-and-gas-solution-for-risk-management-of-capital-projects","status":"publish","type":"hck-submission","link":"https:\/\/d3.harvard.edu\/platform-hbappitch\/submission\/d-risk-oil-and-gas-solution-for-risk-management-of-capital-projects\/","title":{"rendered":"D-Risk Oil and Gas Solution for Risk Management of Capital Projects"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"mceTemp\">\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-large wp-image-1367\" src=\"http:\/\/d3.harvard.edu\/platform-hbappitch\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/31\/2020\/08\/Screenshot-2020-08-21-at-4.56.21-PM-1024x581.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"640\" height=\"363\" srcset=\"https:\/\/d3.harvard.edu\/platform-hbappitch\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/31\/2020\/08\/Screenshot-2020-08-21-at-4.56.21-PM-1024x581.png 1024w, https:\/\/d3.harvard.edu\/platform-hbappitch\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/31\/2020\/08\/Screenshot-2020-08-21-at-4.56.21-PM-300x170.png 300w, https:\/\/d3.harvard.edu\/platform-hbappitch\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/31\/2020\/08\/Screenshot-2020-08-21-at-4.56.21-PM-768x436.png 768w, https:\/\/d3.harvard.edu\/platform-hbappitch\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/31\/2020\/08\/Screenshot-2020-08-21-at-4.56.21-PM-1536x871.png 1536w, https:\/\/d3.harvard.edu\/platform-hbappitch\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/31\/2020\/08\/Screenshot-2020-08-21-at-4.56.21-PM-600x340.png 600w, https:\/\/d3.harvard.edu\/platform-hbappitch\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/31\/2020\/08\/Screenshot-2020-08-21-at-4.56.21-PM.png 1576w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 640px) 100vw, 640px\" \/><\/p>\n<ul class=\"wp-caption alignleft\" style=\"width: 640px\">\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none\">\n<ul class=\"wp-caption alignleft\" style=\"width: 640px\">[Ryan, CDA] \u201cHello John I heard you just sanctioned another capital project\u2026.Good for you and your team!<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul class=\"wp-caption alignleft\" style=\"width: 640px\">\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none\">\n<ul class=\"wp-caption alignleft\" style=\"width: 640px\">[John, Customer] Yes, we are in the process of picking an EPC company, but I tell you this is going to be a tough one the economics are tight, and the timeline is tighter.<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul class=\"wp-caption alignleft\" style=\"width: 640px\">\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none\">\n<ul class=\"wp-caption alignleft\" style=\"width: 640px\">[Ryan, CDA]. John, as you know I work for Crimson Data Analytics and \u2026<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul class=\"wp-caption alignleft\" style=\"width: 640px\">\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none\">\n<ul class=\"wp-caption alignleft\" style=\"width: 640px\">We have developed a cloud based, data-driven solution for assesses and D-risks large capital projects in Oil &amp; Gas. We have a database of historical projects and through our research we have determined that there are 23 key factors in the success of a project. Our solution uses data analytics and ML algorithms. Our solution very quickly and robustly:<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul class=\"wp-caption alignleft\" style=\"width: 640px\">\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none\">\n<ul class=\"wp-caption alignleft\" style=\"width: 640px\">-Identifies your project\u2019s key risk factors<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul class=\"wp-caption alignleft\" style=\"width: 640px\">\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none\">\n<ul class=\"wp-caption alignleft\" style=\"width: 640px\">-Correlates these factors against historical project performance<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul class=\"wp-caption alignleft\" style=\"width: 640px\">\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none\">\n<ul class=\"wp-caption alignleft\" style=\"width: 640px\">-Predicts the factors likely to negatively impact your project performance<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul class=\"wp-caption alignleft\" style=\"width: 640px\">\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none\">\n<ul class=\"wp-caption alignleft\" style=\"width: 640px\">-Proposes unique high-impact actions your team should focus on to minimize overall project risk and prevent cost and schedule overruns<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul class=\"wp-caption alignleft\" style=\"width: 640px\">\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none\">\n<ul class=\"wp-caption alignleft\" style=\"width: 640px\">With D-Risk you can expect a savings of 13% or more on your overall project budget while maintaining schedule. I can have my team conduct a free, preliminary project review that allows you to benchmark your project\u2019s competitiveness within a couple hours. Should we set something up for, say, next Tuesday?<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul id=\"attachment_1367\" class=\"wp-caption alignleft\" style=\"width: 640px\">[John, Customer] That sounds great, please do so.\u201d<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_1365\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-1365\" style=\"width: 640px\" class=\"wp-caption alignleft\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-large wp-image-1365\" src=\"http:\/\/d3.harvard.edu\/platform-hbappitch\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/31\/2020\/08\/Screenshot-2020-08-21-at-4.56.27-PM-1024x581.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"640\" height=\"363\" srcset=\"https:\/\/d3.harvard.edu\/platform-hbappitch\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/31\/2020\/08\/Screenshot-2020-08-21-at-4.56.27-PM-1024x581.png 1024w, https:\/\/d3.harvard.edu\/platform-hbappitch\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/31\/2020\/08\/Screenshot-2020-08-21-at-4.56.27-PM-300x170.png 300w, https:\/\/d3.harvard.edu\/platform-hbappitch\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/31\/2020\/08\/Screenshot-2020-08-21-at-4.56.27-PM-768x436.png 768w, https:\/\/d3.harvard.edu\/platform-hbappitch\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/31\/2020\/08\/Screenshot-2020-08-21-at-4.56.27-PM-1536x871.png 1536w, https:\/\/d3.harvard.edu\/platform-hbappitch\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/31\/2020\/08\/Screenshot-2020-08-21-at-4.56.27-PM-600x340.png 600w, https:\/\/d3.harvard.edu\/platform-hbappitch\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/31\/2020\/08\/Screenshot-2020-08-21-at-4.56.27-PM.png 1576w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 640px) 100vw, 640px\" \/><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-1365\" class=\"wp-caption-text\"><strong>Slide 2:\u00a0 Our Team The team comprises of three primaries<\/strong><br \/>Ryan Roper &#8211; Product Director and SME on Risk Management for Capital Projects<br \/>Demet Tatar &#8211; Lead Data Scientist and a Founder of Crimson Data Analytics, and Crimson Innovation Lab software start-up<br \/>Karim Moti &#8211; Business Development Manager, oil &amp; gas SME, and serial entrepreneur<br \/>The team is backed by a set of Advisors<br \/>Sadi Kuleli, MIT PhD in Geophysics, Saudi Aramco<br \/>Bilgin Altundas, PhD in Applied Mathematics &#8211; Modeling- Schlumberger<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_1364\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-1364\" style=\"width: 640px\" class=\"wp-caption alignleft\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-large wp-image-1364\" src=\"http:\/\/d3.harvard.edu\/platform-hbappitch\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/31\/2020\/08\/Screenshot-2020-08-21-at-4.56.30-PM-1024x581.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"640\" height=\"363\" srcset=\"https:\/\/d3.harvard.edu\/platform-hbappitch\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/31\/2020\/08\/Screenshot-2020-08-21-at-4.56.30-PM-1024x581.png 1024w, https:\/\/d3.harvard.edu\/platform-hbappitch\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/31\/2020\/08\/Screenshot-2020-08-21-at-4.56.30-PM-300x170.png 300w, https:\/\/d3.harvard.edu\/platform-hbappitch\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/31\/2020\/08\/Screenshot-2020-08-21-at-4.56.30-PM-768x436.png 768w, https:\/\/d3.harvard.edu\/platform-hbappitch\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/31\/2020\/08\/Screenshot-2020-08-21-at-4.56.30-PM-1536x871.png 1536w, https:\/\/d3.harvard.edu\/platform-hbappitch\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/31\/2020\/08\/Screenshot-2020-08-21-at-4.56.30-PM-600x340.png 600w, https:\/\/d3.harvard.edu\/platform-hbappitch\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/31\/2020\/08\/Screenshot-2020-08-21-at-4.56.30-PM.png 1576w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 640px) 100vw, 640px\" \/><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-1364\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Oil &amp; Gas capital projects are unique, complex and add significant value to our collective way of life&#8230;and yes, to the companies that undertake these massive projects.\u00a0 \u00a0More than 75% of major projects in the industry experience cost and schedule overruns. Unfortunately, this level of overrun, highlighted by PriceWaterhouseCoopers (PwC) in 2013, has almost become a consistently repeated \u2018phenomenon\u2019. And not only is this a problem, but it\u2019s a VUCA type problem where the challenges are Volatile&#8230;Uncertain&#8230;Complex and Ambiguous. We, at Crimson, believe there is a better way&#8230;a digitally disruptive way..that flips current measures and definitions of uncertainty to bring a more data-driven approach identifying, measuring and tracking risks for better decision-making. We call it D-Risk.\u00a0 For example in the above diagram the red zone of\u00a0 the budget is observed 75% of the time (P-10 &#8211; probability 10%.\u00a0 \u00a0Focus on Accuracy vs. precision&#8230;.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_1363\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-1363\" style=\"width: 640px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-large wp-image-1363\" src=\"http:\/\/d3.harvard.edu\/platform-hbappitch\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/31\/2020\/08\/Screenshot-2020-08-21-at-4.56.34-PM-1024x581.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"640\" height=\"363\" srcset=\"https:\/\/d3.harvard.edu\/platform-hbappitch\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/31\/2020\/08\/Screenshot-2020-08-21-at-4.56.34-PM-1024x581.png 1024w, https:\/\/d3.harvard.edu\/platform-hbappitch\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/31\/2020\/08\/Screenshot-2020-08-21-at-4.56.34-PM-300x170.png 300w, https:\/\/d3.harvard.edu\/platform-hbappitch\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/31\/2020\/08\/Screenshot-2020-08-21-at-4.56.34-PM-768x436.png 768w, https:\/\/d3.harvard.edu\/platform-hbappitch\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/31\/2020\/08\/Screenshot-2020-08-21-at-4.56.34-PM-1536x871.png 1536w, https:\/\/d3.harvard.edu\/platform-hbappitch\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/31\/2020\/08\/Screenshot-2020-08-21-at-4.56.34-PM-600x340.png 600w, https:\/\/d3.harvard.edu\/platform-hbappitch\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/31\/2020\/08\/Screenshot-2020-08-21-at-4.56.34-PM.png 1576w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 640px) 100vw, 640px\" \/><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-1363\" class=\"wp-caption-text\"><strong>Problems<\/strong><br \/>Capital Project are 94% of the time over budget by 54.4% on average<br \/>Identifying the highest Risk Factors &#8211; The Risk Assessment Process does not identify root factors quantitatively to take action<br \/>Scarcity of Required Resources &#8211; With the aging workforce there are gaps in senior resources (&gt;20+ years of experience) who are required for Mega Projects<br \/>The mindset of the industry is insular in its use of resources and methodologies &#8211; yielding the same negative results<br \/>Lessons Learned are rarely learned<br \/>No standardized approach to project comparisons to benchmark them<br \/>Projects are not compared against performance of past similar projects<br \/>Project Risk Assessment is static and can be heavily influenced<br \/>The Risk Assessment process often requires face-to-face meetings<br \/>Because the process is heavily influenced by the facilitators \/ team member bias, the results may not be repeatable<br \/>Risk on a project is very dynamic and complex because factors are continually changing, the current methodology is a based on a snapshot and is stale as soon as anything changes<br \/>Solutions<br \/>A robust database of information from historical projects detailing specific features known to impact project success\/failure can provide the \u2018big data\u2019 required for analysis of comparator projects. The larger the database, the more likely it is to identify analogous risks and develop correlations that can be applied on a new project. A large database essentially creates a larger \u2018crowd\u2019 from which know-how, experience and general wisdom can be accessed to positively impact new capital projects<br \/>Development of an analytical approach that is structured, repeatable and can be used by organizations across the industry, provides global access to a wider assortment of ways of doing work and outcomes that are not usually shared across organizations. This independent perspective allows a greater amount of learning, reduced bias due to institutionalized methods and provides a consistent bias upon which project performance can be measure for the industry. Additionally, because all projects are unique, the D-Risk tool will possess levels of flexibility that allow incremental value addition and modifications based on the specific requirements of the project team<br \/>Risk assessment generally provides a snapshot perspective of uncertainty on a project. It is then heavily reliant upon specific members of the project team to track, monitor and effectively close these risks. The D-risk tool is will decrease reliance upon subjective analyses of risk reduction and quantify this using a more data driven and transparent approach to risk reduction using an online, real-time dashboard that can be readily accessed and used for flexible and more accurate decision-making.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_1362\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-1362\" style=\"width: 640px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-large wp-image-1362\" src=\"http:\/\/d3.harvard.edu\/platform-hbappitch\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/31\/2020\/08\/Screenshot-2020-08-21-at-4.56.40-PM-1024x581.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"640\" height=\"363\" srcset=\"https:\/\/d3.harvard.edu\/platform-hbappitch\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/31\/2020\/08\/Screenshot-2020-08-21-at-4.56.40-PM-1024x581.png 1024w, https:\/\/d3.harvard.edu\/platform-hbappitch\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/31\/2020\/08\/Screenshot-2020-08-21-at-4.56.40-PM-300x170.png 300w, https:\/\/d3.harvard.edu\/platform-hbappitch\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/31\/2020\/08\/Screenshot-2020-08-21-at-4.56.40-PM-768x436.png 768w, https:\/\/d3.harvard.edu\/platform-hbappitch\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/31\/2020\/08\/Screenshot-2020-08-21-at-4.56.40-PM-1536x871.png 1536w, https:\/\/d3.harvard.edu\/platform-hbappitch\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/31\/2020\/08\/Screenshot-2020-08-21-at-4.56.40-PM-600x340.png 600w, https:\/\/d3.harvard.edu\/platform-hbappitch\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/31\/2020\/08\/Screenshot-2020-08-21-at-4.56.40-PM.png 1576w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 640px) 100vw, 640px\" \/><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-1362\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">To define market size we need to look the Capital Project Expenditures for 2020, we will assume it will be flat as in 2020 it dropped 19% from 2019<br \/>From sources approximately 6% of projects are under budget and the remainder are over budget by 51% resulting about $231B in cost overruns. With proper risk management the overruns can be reduced by at least 25% &#8211; which is $58B which is approximately 13% of the overall budget.<br \/>To look at Market size &#8211; we know that on average a project will spend \u00bc% of the budget yielding $1.13B spent on Risk Assessment. We believe that in the first two years we will be able to ramp up to 3% market penetration which is $34M.<br \/>Oil &amp; Gas<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<figure id=\"attachment_1361\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-1361\" style=\"width: 640px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-large wp-image-1361\" src=\"http:\/\/d3.harvard.edu\/platform-hbappitch\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/31\/2020\/08\/Screenshot-2020-08-21-at-4.56.44-PM-1024x581.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"640\" height=\"363\" srcset=\"https:\/\/d3.harvard.edu\/platform-hbappitch\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/31\/2020\/08\/Screenshot-2020-08-21-at-4.56.44-PM-1024x581.png 1024w, https:\/\/d3.harvard.edu\/platform-hbappitch\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/31\/2020\/08\/Screenshot-2020-08-21-at-4.56.44-PM-300x170.png 300w, https:\/\/d3.harvard.edu\/platform-hbappitch\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/31\/2020\/08\/Screenshot-2020-08-21-at-4.56.44-PM-768x436.png 768w, https:\/\/d3.harvard.edu\/platform-hbappitch\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/31\/2020\/08\/Screenshot-2020-08-21-at-4.56.44-PM-1536x871.png 1536w, https:\/\/d3.harvard.edu\/platform-hbappitch\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/31\/2020\/08\/Screenshot-2020-08-21-at-4.56.44-PM-600x340.png 600w, https:\/\/d3.harvard.edu\/platform-hbappitch\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/31\/2020\/08\/Screenshot-2020-08-21-at-4.56.44-PM.png 1576w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 640px) 100vw, 640px\" \/><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-1361\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Our business model is clear. We will combine domain technology with database development and analytics to create a cloud-based project solution for capital projects. We will own supporting structures required to facilitate this including:<br \/>Digital &amp; Cloud Support &#8211; Working with our server provider to ensure continuous, safe and secure access to our software tool<br \/>Data Visualisation and Comms &#8211; Working with our clients to create bespoke reporting tools and real-time services at varying levels to meet customer decision-making needs<br \/>Business Development &#8211; Driving the sales, consumer awareness and client capture to ignite and maintain profitability<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<figure id=\"attachment_1360\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-1360\" style=\"width: 640px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-large wp-image-1360\" src=\"http:\/\/d3.harvard.edu\/platform-hbappitch\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/31\/2020\/08\/Screenshot-2020-08-21-at-4.56.47-PM-1024x581.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"640\" height=\"363\" srcset=\"https:\/\/d3.harvard.edu\/platform-hbappitch\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/31\/2020\/08\/Screenshot-2020-08-21-at-4.56.47-PM-1024x581.png 1024w, https:\/\/d3.harvard.edu\/platform-hbappitch\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/31\/2020\/08\/Screenshot-2020-08-21-at-4.56.47-PM-300x170.png 300w, https:\/\/d3.harvard.edu\/platform-hbappitch\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/31\/2020\/08\/Screenshot-2020-08-21-at-4.56.47-PM-768x436.png 768w, https:\/\/d3.harvard.edu\/platform-hbappitch\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/31\/2020\/08\/Screenshot-2020-08-21-at-4.56.47-PM-1536x871.png 1536w, https:\/\/d3.harvard.edu\/platform-hbappitch\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/31\/2020\/08\/Screenshot-2020-08-21-at-4.56.47-PM-600x340.png 600w, https:\/\/d3.harvard.edu\/platform-hbappitch\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/31\/2020\/08\/Screenshot-2020-08-21-at-4.56.47-PM.png 1576w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 640px) 100vw, 640px\" \/><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-1360\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">We respect the experience of subject matter experts in the field of oil and gas development. We would like to combine this expertise and domain knowledge with data science and analytics to drive a deeper quantitative focus on project development. We expect that this combined approach will help to reduce uncertainty and guide project management teams towards more robust decision-making capability in real-time because of our cloud based project solution.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<figure id=\"attachment_1359\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-1359\" style=\"width: 640px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-large wp-image-1359\" src=\"http:\/\/d3.harvard.edu\/platform-hbappitch\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/31\/2020\/08\/Screenshot-2020-08-21-at-4.56.50-PM-1024x581.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"640\" height=\"363\" srcset=\"https:\/\/d3.harvard.edu\/platform-hbappitch\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/31\/2020\/08\/Screenshot-2020-08-21-at-4.56.50-PM-1024x581.png 1024w, https:\/\/d3.harvard.edu\/platform-hbappitch\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/31\/2020\/08\/Screenshot-2020-08-21-at-4.56.50-PM-300x170.png 300w, https:\/\/d3.harvard.edu\/platform-hbappitch\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/31\/2020\/08\/Screenshot-2020-08-21-at-4.56.50-PM-768x436.png 768w, https:\/\/d3.harvard.edu\/platform-hbappitch\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/31\/2020\/08\/Screenshot-2020-08-21-at-4.56.50-PM-1536x871.png 1536w, https:\/\/d3.harvard.edu\/platform-hbappitch\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/31\/2020\/08\/Screenshot-2020-08-21-at-4.56.50-PM-600x340.png 600w, https:\/\/d3.harvard.edu\/platform-hbappitch\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/31\/2020\/08\/Screenshot-2020-08-21-at-4.56.50-PM.png 1576w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 640px) 100vw, 640px\" \/><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-1359\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">There are a number of small and medium enterprises that focus on risk management for capital projects across the Oil &amp; Gas industry. The majority of these have been formed by very experienced project personnel (20+ years) retired from large client firms. These individuals form multi-disciplined consulting alliances to return to their former companies and other competitors to provide a workshop led experience of discovery. Because each major project is unique, these professionals take the time to draw out the nuances of each project and then utilise their own experience to identify and assess key risks that may impact the project. This is then rolled up into traditional risk management techniques which possesses some quantitative aspects, but remains a qualitative focused approach. These consultants then guide the project team, at a very high level, towards potential actions that could take place to move the dial on assessed risk.<br \/>The above process becomes a \u2018check-in-the-box\u2019 exercise and a numbers game &#8211; moving the dot from the red section of a mostly arbitrarily assigned risk matrix towards a less red area of the risk matrix. At the end of the project, the dot may have moved into a green area, yet both the risk and the cost and schedule impacts associated with the risk have been realised, not flagged to management and is a complete surprise where the organization has no choice but to accept its fate. \u201cWe\u2019ve already come this far!!\u201d<br \/>Pinnacle, Gustavson and @RISK all follow the above process in a repeatable and consistent approach. Client companies have begun to recognise the failures of this approach and, over the last 3-7 years have been attempting to develop in-house capability around the quantification of risk management and understanding how to correlate risk to cost exposure and drive more effective decision-making.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<figure id=\"attachment_1358\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-1358\" style=\"width: 640px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-large wp-image-1358\" src=\"http:\/\/d3.harvard.edu\/platform-hbappitch\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/31\/2020\/08\/Screenshot-2020-08-21-at-4.56.57-PM-1024x581.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"640\" height=\"363\" srcset=\"https:\/\/d3.harvard.edu\/platform-hbappitch\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/31\/2020\/08\/Screenshot-2020-08-21-at-4.56.57-PM-1024x581.png 1024w, https:\/\/d3.harvard.edu\/platform-hbappitch\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/31\/2020\/08\/Screenshot-2020-08-21-at-4.56.57-PM-300x170.png 300w, https:\/\/d3.harvard.edu\/platform-hbappitch\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/31\/2020\/08\/Screenshot-2020-08-21-at-4.56.57-PM-768x436.png 768w, https:\/\/d3.harvard.edu\/platform-hbappitch\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/31\/2020\/08\/Screenshot-2020-08-21-at-4.56.57-PM-1536x871.png 1536w, https:\/\/d3.harvard.edu\/platform-hbappitch\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/31\/2020\/08\/Screenshot-2020-08-21-at-4.56.57-PM-600x340.png 600w, https:\/\/d3.harvard.edu\/platform-hbappitch\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/31\/2020\/08\/Screenshot-2020-08-21-at-4.56.57-PM.png 1576w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 640px) 100vw, 640px\" \/><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-1358\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">We are looking for $3.0M of funding which will cover us for the next 2 years in regards to Product Definition, Product Development, Marketing, Sales, and Customer Support<br \/>The company will launch in October 2020 (M1).<br \/>We have identified 3 major milestones<br \/>Month 3 (Dec \u201820) A local install of a simple web-based tool with a database of 100 capital projects &#8211; The database will evolve while working with clients, accessing their ways of working and gaining access to privately-owned historical data. Focusing on development in parallel with consultancy to build a customer base and garner input from the clients to feed the development<br \/>Month 9 (Jun \u201821) A cloud based version of D-Risk with a Project database of at least 300 capital projects. This product will be offered to companies as a subscription and will offer training workshops and consultancy to get them aware. They will use this through major milestones of a project Pre-Feed, Feed, Detailed Design and Construction Commencement<br \/>Month 12(Sep \u201821) D-Risk will include real-time tracking capability that analyzes uncertainty throughout the project lifecycle and provide continuous, actionable reporting and analysis<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>OVERVIEW OF THE SOLUTION<\/p>\n<p><b><i>Today\u2019s risk management process <\/i><\/b>combines qualitative and quantitative approaches but with a focus on the qualitative.<\/p>\n<p>Qualitative analysis today identifies risks and mitigating actions through access to knowledge in the room. However, this comes with bias from workshop facilitators, institutional focus and limited experience of attendees<\/p>\n<p>Quantitative analysis today utilizes a Risk Matrix methodology to classify risk using consequence and likelihood estimates<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><b><i>Crimson inverts today\u2019s risk management process to an agile, data-driven, quantitative focus.<\/i><\/b><\/p>\n<p>Our approach brings accuracy through data analysis, repeatability and standardization and provides a clear, actionable path towards increased probability of project success. Through Crimson\u2019s D-Risk\u2122 cloud based solution, historical capital projects are analyzed to identify the key factors impacting Capital Projects and adapting these to your unique project.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Risk Assessment Solution for CapEx projects in Oil and Gas that will derisk a budget by at least 13%.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":14622,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","template":"","categories":[559,557,556,558,560],"class_list":["post-1322","hck-submission","type-hck-submission","status-publish","hentry","category-budgeting","category-business-analytics","category-captial-projects","category-machine-learning","category-risk-management","hck-taxonomy-organization-crimson-data-analytics","hck-taxonomy-industry-energy","hck-taxonomy-country-united-states"],"connected_submission_link":"https:\/\/d3.harvard.edu\/platform-hbappitch\/round\/contestant-submissions-september-2020\/","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/d3.harvard.edu\/platform-hbappitch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/hck-submission\/1322","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/d3.harvard.edu\/platform-hbappitch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/hck-submission"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/d3.harvard.edu\/platform-hbappitch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/hck-submission"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/d3.harvard.edu\/platform-hbappitch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/14622"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/d3.harvard.edu\/platform-hbappitch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1322"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/d3.harvard.edu\/platform-hbappitch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/hck-submission\/1322\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1513,"href":"https:\/\/d3.harvard.edu\/platform-hbappitch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/hck-submission\/1322\/revisions\/1513"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/d3.harvard.edu\/platform-hbappitch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1322"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/d3.harvard.edu\/platform-hbappitch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1322"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}