{"id":6159,"date":"2018-01-31T10:01:48","date_gmt":"2018-01-31T15:01:48","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/digital.hbs.edu\/platform-digit\/submission\/losing-is-as-easy-as-1-2-3\/"},"modified":"2018-01-31T17:31:34","modified_gmt":"2018-01-31T22:31:34","slug":"losing-at-the-census-bureau-is-as-easy-as-1-2-3","status":"publish","type":"hck-submission","link":"https:\/\/d3.harvard.edu\/platform-digit\/submission\/losing-at-the-census-bureau-is-as-easy-as-1-2-3\/","title":{"rendered":"Losing at the Census Bureau is as easy as 1, 2, 3\u2026"},"content":{"rendered":"

Most people know the U.S. Constitution requires a census be conducted every 10 years. [1]<\/a> But few realize that census results determine how $600 billion federal funds are allocated. [2]<\/a><\/p>\n

With $600 billion on the line, one would think accurate results are important. Unfortunately, the U.S. Census Bureau is stuck in the stone age of data collection and analysis. The most recent census\u2014the 2010 decennial\u2014was a \u201cpen and pencil\u201d census that relied on households filling out and returning mailed questionnaires. [3]<\/a> For non-reporting households, temporary workers were dispatched across America to physically obtain census data. [4]<\/a><\/p>\n

Not surprisingly, the 2010 decennial was the costliest census ($12.3 billion), and had dismal response and return rates: [5]<\/a><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a>\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

As attention turns to the 2020 decennial, the Census Bureau claims four new \u201cinnovation areas\u201d will help modernize the next census: [6]<\/a><\/p>\n

(1) Using geographic information systems<\/strong> and aerial imagery to canvas addresses (instead of dispatching census employees to physically check 11 million census blocks);<\/p>\n

(2)<\/strong>\u00a0Adding phone and internet response options <\/strong>to increase self-response rates;<\/p>\n

(3) Utilizing administrative records and third-party data<\/strong> to improve the quality of addresses, improve advertising effectiveness, validate online responses, and reduce field employee follow-up activities; and<\/p>\n

(4) Adopting work automation\/optimization software<\/strong>\u00a0to more efficiently manage fieldwork.<\/p>\n

While these are steps in the right direction, they fall short of modernizing the 2020 decennial, or justifying its $15.6 billion price tag. Instead, here are some suggestions for improving census results.<\/p>\n

First, Congress should enable a rolling census, which could collect and distribute census data in a continuous fashion, and be supplemented by cheaper statistically grounded surveys. [7]<\/a> A rolling census would minimize labor costs from field operators (the 2010 decennial hired 635,000 temporary workers to investigate non-responses). [8]<\/a><\/p>\n

Second, the Census Bureau should be more proactive in using administrative records and third-party data. For example, the Census Bureau could issue federal grants to universities (who are far more experienced at analyzing big data) to scrape publicly available data on a state-by-state basis. EDI could be established between the Census Bureau and state agencies, which would automate transmission of relevant census data (e.g., vehicle registrations, birth and death certificates, state tax returns).<\/p>\n

Third, the Census Bureau should lobby for the creation of a national ID system. While some claim national IDs raise civil liberty concerns, [9]<\/a> it is likely that tech and financial companies (not to mention hackers) already can assemble fairly accurate databases, with far better accuracy than the 2010 decennial\u2019s 79.3% response rate. A national ID system not only would remove billions from the Census Bureau\u2019s budget, but also would make other federal and state agencies more efficient.<\/p>\n

Unfortunately, the Census Bureau remains decades behind current data collection and analysis technologies, and is trying to catch up with baby steps.<\/p>\n

[1]<\/a> U.S. Constitution, Article 1, Section 2.\u00a0 See also <\/em>U.S.C. Title 13, available at<\/em> https:\/\/www.law.cornell.edu\/uscode\/text\/13<\/a>; Kat Eschner, \u201cThe First Census Only Asked Six Questions,\u201d Smithsonian.com (Aug. 2, 2017), https:\/\/www.smithsonianmag.com\/smart-news\/first-us-census-only-asked-six-questions-180964234<\/a> (noting that \u201cAmerica\u2019s founders agreed that the census was important, but it wasn\u2019t long\u201d).<\/p>\n

[2]<\/a> Robert Shapiro, \u201cThe 2020 Census may be wildly inaccurate\u2014and it matters more than you think,\u201d Brookings Institution (Aug. 31, 2017), https:\/\/www.brookings.edu\/blog\/fixgov\/2017\/08\/31\/the-2020-census-may-be-wildly-inaccurate-and-it-matters-more-than-you-think<\/a>; see also <\/em>Kyle Morrill, \u201c2020 Census Goes Digital,\u201d Montana Business Quarterly<\/em> 54 (Fall 2016) 2.<\/a><\/p>\n

[3] Statement of Wilbur Ross, Secretary of Commerce, before the U.S. House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform (Oct. 12, 2017), available at <\/em>https:\/\/oversight.house.gov\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/10\/Written-SWLR-HOGR-Testimony-FINAL.pdf<\/a>.<\/a><\/p>\n

[4] Statement of David A. Powner, Director Information Technology, U.S. Government Accountability Office, before the U.S. House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform (Oct. 12, 2017), available at<\/em> https:\/\/oversight.house.gov\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/10\/GAO_Goldenkoff-and-Powner_Testimony_2020-Census.pdf<\/a>.<\/a><\/p>\n

[5] The first chart is from David A. Powner\u2019s testimony (see reference above).\u00a0 The second chart is from the U.S. Census Bureau\u2019s \u201cCensus Coverage Management\u201d report, which was issued on May 22, 2012 and is available at https:\/\/www.census.gov\/2010census\/news\/pdf\/20120512_ccm_newsconf_slides.pdf<\/a>.<\/a><\/p>\n

[6] U.S. Census Bureau, 2020 Census Operational Plan\u2014Version 3.0 (October 2017), available at <\/em>https:\/\/www.census.gov\/programs-surveys\/decennial-census\/2020-census\/planning-management\/planning-docs\/operational-plan.html<\/a>.<\/a><\/p>\n

[7] See, e.g.<\/em>, Joseph F. Coates, \u201cMoving the census into the 21st<\/sup> century,\u201d Technological Forecasting & Social Change<\/em> 113 (2016) 44-46.<\/a><\/p>\n

[8] \u201cDoor-to-Door Visits Begin for 2010 Census,\u201d U.S. Census Bureau News Release (April 30, 2010), https:\/\/www.census.gov\/2010census\/news\/releases\/operations\/door-to-door-visits-begin.html<\/a>.<\/a><\/p>\n

[9] See, e.g.<\/em>, \u201c5 Problems with National ID Cards,\u201d American Civil Liberties Union, available at <\/em>https:\/\/www.aclu.org\/other\/5-problems-national-id-cards<\/a> (accessed Jan. 29, 2017) (noting that national IDs \u201cwill lead to a slippery slope of surveillance and monitoring of citizens\u201d).<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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